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Reference details


Author(s) Year Title Reference View/Download

Les Hatton

2014d3

1977-2013 Worldwide Hurricane Activity

WEBNo downloadable files available yet

Synopsis and invited feedback

Peer review is important and acquiring competent reviewers is becoming a major problem for the journals today so I will be very happy to include constructive comment (positive or negative) with acknowledgement. If I am not competent to judge your commentary I will try and find somebody who is.

If you would like to provide feedback just e-mail me here.

Synopsis Invited Feedback Importance (/10, author rated :-) )
IPCC reporting on potential increase in hurricane frequency driven by anthropogenic contributions to climate change has been misleading to say the least. For example, IPCC 2007 said "Tropical storm and hurricane frequencies vary considerably from year to year, but evidence suggests substantial increases in intensity and duration since the 1970s." This is a rash and inaccurate statement which demeans the use of the word 'evidence'.

I am not entering any debates here apart from my customary mistrust of poorly calibrated computer models and the frequently unjustified faith in their predictive abilities, so this is just the current data, siphoned off the notable http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/ and plotted.

I haven't even done any statistical analysis this time as it is pretty obvious that the numbers of both hurricanes and major hurricanes (>= 3 on Saffir-Simpson) have declined by about 25% from a peak in 1992-7 and are today comparable with their frequencies in the late 1970s. Until climate models can successfully predict such trends, their general accuracy remains a matter of considerable debate.

None yet8

Related links

Related papers and links

Data_Hurricanes_1946-2013.hmtl


Auto-generated: $Revision: 1.58 $, $Date: 2016/01/03 19:07:28 $, Copyright Les Hatton 2001-